Investments in the health and education of youth early on is key to achieving the benefits of the demographic dividend. As these groups move into productive jobs, the gains in terms of household and national income are materialized, thus creating a demographic dividend for the country. This allows society - both households and the government - to invest education and health resources in fewer children, increasing human capital for the members of this bulge cohort. Those who enter working- age can produce for their households and themselves while having fewer children than previous cohorts. The effect is magnified when lower fertility allows women to enter the labor force at a higher proportion. Higher survival rates in a given cohort, followed by fewer children in the next, produces a population bulge that translates into a higher labor supply and a lower dependency ratio. When the country experiences rapid economic expansion and considerable gains in terms of human capital indicators, the demographic transition can be strongly linked to a demographic dividend. Population by age groups, (millions)Ī demographic transition is when a country evolves from a state of high mortality and high fertility into one with low mortality and low fertility, with a period of rapid population growth first triggered by declining mortality rates, followed by declining fertility rates. With its decreasing mortality rate and an increasing share of working-age individuals, Uganda is entering the early transition stage of its demographic transition.įigure 3. These demographic trends will have major implications for Uganda’s development path over the next 40 years.

This means that, proportionally speaking, the working-age population will grow from its current share of 52% of the total population to nearly 70% by 2060. The youth population (ages 0 to 14 years) is projected to rise from 21 million to approximately 29 million by 2060 (Figure 3). The working-age population is set to increase from 24 million in 2020 to 69 million by the year 2060. The demographic composition will also change. Notably, much of the growth in urban populations will come from rural to urban migration, as the actual fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of urban areas – an average of 5.9 births per woman in rural areas compared to 4.0 births per woman in urban areas. According to the projections, however, by 2060 Uganda’s urban population will surpass its rural population, with estimates of 53 million living in urban centers and 51 in rural areas. In 2020, about 34 million people are estimated to be living in rural areas of the country, while urban centers hold approximately 11 million people, close to 25% of the population (Figure 2).

This growth in population will also be accompanied by a significant shift from rural to urban areas.

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